How Accurate Are Trading Alert Services?
By Bruno Nalon · · 3 min read
"How accurate is it?" is the first question most people ask about a trading alert service - and the hardest to answer honestly. Accuracy is not one number. A service can be right most of the time and still lose money, or be right less often and still come out ahead. Here is how to judge reliability for yourself instead of trusting a headline percentage.
What "accurate" actually means
For a trading alert, accuracy can mean several things: how often trades close with a profit (win rate), how much they make on average versus how much they lose, whether the alert's prices were actually tradable when it was sent, and whether results stay consistent across different market conditions.
A useful service gives you enough information to check all of these - not just one flattering figure.
Why win rate alone is misleading
Credit strategies such as put spreads and iron condors often win most of the time, because they profit when a stock simply does not move too far. But their losses are usually larger than their wins. A 75% win rate with an average win of $100 and an average loss of $400 loses money: 0.75 x $100 - 0.25 x $400 = -$25 per trade.
The number that matters is expected value: win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss. Always look for all three numbers together, along with the max risk per trade.
How to verify a track record
Look for closed trades, not just open ones, and losers as well as winners. Check whether results are published continuously, trade by trade, or only as screenshots chosen after the fact. See whether returns are measured against the capital actually at risk, and how long the record goes back - a few good months in a calm market prove very little.
EasyTrade publishes its recent closed signals and live performance metrics on the homepage, losing trades included. Whatever service you consider, if you cannot see the losses, assume they are being hidden.
Why your results can differ from the alert's
Even a perfectly reported track record will not match your account exactly. Prices move between the alert and when you send the signal, so your fill can be better or worse. Commissions reduce small credits. You may enter a day later, size differently, or close earlier than the service did.
That is why it matters to compare the live price with the signal before sending a signal, and to track your own results rather than only the service's.
Red flags in accuracy claims
Be skeptical of win rates of 90% or more with no average loss shown, "guaranteed" or "risk-free" language, performance shown only as account screenshots, results that start right after a lucky streak, and services that never mention a single losing trade.
Also watch for missing context: no max risk per trade, no dates, no explanation of how a trade was closed. Accuracy without context is marketing.
How to test a service yourself
Use a free trial that is long enough to see trades open and close. Options trades often last weeks - EasyTrade trades have closed in an average of 21 days - so a 24-hour or 7-day trial cannot show you real outcomes.
During the trial, log every signal: entry, the price you could actually get, exit and result. Paper trade or use very small size. After 20 or 30 trades you will have your own data on how reliable the service is, which beats any number on a sales page.
See a real signal for yourself
Every EasyTrade signal shows the max risk, max profit, EasyScore and a step-by-step execution guide before you trade. Try it free for 30 days - no credit card required.
Frequently asked questions
Keep reading
- Why Do Trading Alert Services Fail?
- How to Know If a Trading Signal Is Legit
- How to Avoid Scam Trading Alert Services
- Can You Make Money With Trading Signal Services?
- Options strategy guides